Wearables Can Predict Burnout 14 Days Before You Feel It. Almost No Consumer App Uses This.

Heart-rate variability (HRV) — the millisecond variation between heartbeats — is the most-studied autonomic marker of chronic stress. Multiple 2022-2024 studies indexed in PubMed and reviewed in Frontiers in Psychology have shown that a sustained drop in resting HRV, combined with fragmented sleep architecture and elevated evening cortisol, precedes self-reported burnout by roughly two to three weeks. Reported prediction accuracy across studies sits in the 68-91% range depending on cohort size and how burnout is measured (Maslach Burnout Inventory vs Copenhagen Burnout Inventory).

The World Health Organization codified burnout as an occupational phenomenon in ICD-11 (code QD85) in 2019, and Gallup's 2025 State of the Global Workplace report put daily employee stress at a record 41% — a level that made 'wait for the person to self-report' a losing strategy years ago.

Apple Health, Google Fit, Oura, Whoop, Garmin Connect, and Samsung Health all expose HRV, resting heart rate, respiratory rate, and sleep-stage data through documented APIs. The signals that clinical studies use to forecast burnout are, for most knowledge workers, already being recorded every night — and doing nothing.

Calm, Headspace, and BetterUp treat those metrics as consumer trivia. They surface a nightly recovery score, then hand you a meditation. None of them tie the trend into a 14-day burnout probability tied to your specific workload, your industry's AI-adoption pressure, or your financial runway.

Two reasons. First, most of the accurate published models were built in clinical or occupational-health contexts with medical-device oversight — the operators had no incentive to ship a $9/month app. Second, the platforms that own the wearable data (Apple, Google, Oura) sell devices, not career decisions; a burnout forecast that says 'take PTO next Tuesday' is not their product.

That leaves an obvious space for a small, non-clinical, self-reported tool that respects both the science and the boundary: a forecast, not a diagnosis; a nudge, not a prescription.

Kyrovo's Burnout Forecast is self-reported today — three energy signals, industry-adjusted — and projects a 14-day pressure curve so you can act before the crash. It is explicitly not a medical device, does not read HRV, and does not diagnose anything. The next step, which we describe openly on the roadmap, is opt-in Apple Health / Google Fit read access so the forecast can be grounded in your own trend rather than only your own memory. Everything stays local to your account, never sold, and never visible to your employer.